Should We Be Concerned With High Inflation?

19 Oct 2021

By Eric Lee, Account Manager, Phillip Futures

News about rising inflation rates has been making the stock market jittery lately. How concerned should we be about its impact to our portfolio? (https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/latest-inflation-reading-shows-prices-continue-rise-n1281400)

Historical Annualised Rate of Inflation
Historical Annualised Rate of Inflation

Above chart shows the historical annualised rate of inflation. Greyed portion indicates period of recession and red line indicate 5% inflation level. High inflation is a key indicator to watch out for as it might lead to economic downturn. But this is not the be all, end all indicator, we still have to check out other indicators to gauge the health of the economy.

Unemployment Rate

Often, the best leading indicator for recession is the Unemployment Rate. With the exception of the brief recession caused by the COVID-19 outbreak last year, all other previous recessions saw the Unemployment Rate flatten out and reverse before recession hit the economy. Hence, a recession is caused when people lose their jobs and consumption slows down, causing the economic growth to reverse. The U.S. Unemployment Rate is still on its way down with the global economy gradually opening up, putting in place various measures to combat the Coronavirus.

Why are we linking these economic indicators to a recession and not to the stock market? The reason is bear markets usually happen when there is a recession in the economy. That’s because in a recession, profits for companies will drop, some will even report losses, thus causing a deeper sell down in stock prices. If there’s no recession, then usually what we get is a 10-20% market correction, which the market generally recovers from promptly.

Housing Starts

The next indicator I like to refer to is Housing Starts. This economic indicator measures new residential projects for each month. This is often considered a key leading indicator as when consumers are uncertain about their job security, they will put off buying a big ticket item like a new apartment. This can be seen evidently 1-2 years before the bear market in 2000 and 2008.

To conclude, inflation is giving us some cause for concern but the Unemployment Rate and Housing Starts are looking fine as of now. If the companies you invest in are able to pass the rise in cost to the consumer and not be highly indebted, then they will be less likely to be impacted by the inflation.


Eric Lee is an Account Manager with Phillip Futures. With expertise in Futures, Forex, Stocks, and Unit Trust, Eric makes an all-rounded advisor. Make informed trading decisions without spending time combing through endless information as Eric readily provides clients with trade alerts and insights via WhatsApp. Over his years of experience, Eric developed systematic strategies in trading and investing. Book a complimentary coaching session below to leverage on his expertise as he imparts his knowledge to enhance your trading journey.

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A look at two ETF CFDs we offer:

1) Has the ARKK been sunk?

ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) ARKK is an actively managed ETF by ARK Invest that invests in a range of companies based on their innovative and industry-disrupting potential. ARKK’s largest holdings are in companies such as Tesla, Square, and Zoom. ARKK is down around -33% from peaking on 12th Feb and is currently in the red for the year to date as the market experiences a risk-off outflow of funds. Superstar fund manager Cathie Wood has however been consistently doubling down on her bets, buying even more shares in growth stocks that are going through their own tumultuous periods such as DraftKings, Peloton, Teladoc, and Tesla. In her view, ARKK is playing the long game, and remains steadfastly convinced in the long-term prospects of these growth stocks beyond this current bout of volatility. Similarly on outflows, investors are still betting big on ARKK as ARK Invest has only lost about $1.2B in assets this year across all its six funds, compared to seeing an inflow of $15.1B during the same period. Recently, investors have been nervously eyeing ARKK’s basket of tech stocks as their future earnings potential remain vulnerable to erosion through high inflation – the dominant concern of the market in recent weeks. As commodities – the major contributor to the recent heightened inflation fears – drops sharply from record highs, are investor concerns over hyperinflation overblown?

2) Searching for exposure to Asian equities?

iShares MSCI Asia ex Japan ETF (AAXJ) The AAXJ is currently trading -10.6% adrift of all-time highs seen in February, giving up gains in tandem with an Asia-wide equity sell-off at the time. Given that slightly over 40% of the ETF’s holdings are based in China, the ongoing tumult seen in Chinese equities currently have carried over nearly perfectly in the AAXJ, as Chinese investors take a breather after the stellar gains made over the past year. Looking ahead, Asia – and particularly China, is steaming ahead with its economic recovery. China is widely expected to be one of the best-performing major economies this year, providing a major boost to the outlook for corporate earnings. As the rest of Asia and the world gradually opens up their own economies, AAXJ is likely to again benefit from strong Asian outperformance amidst a strengthening trade outlook.

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