Same Bitcoin Just In An ETF Format

23 Jan 2024

By Danish Lim, Investment Analyst for Phillip Nova

As of the week of 8 January 2024, we saw the approval of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US, potentially opening the door for cryptocurrencies in investors’ portfolios. This development is expected to drive inflows as financial institutions buy up Bitcoin, and demand for the digital coin rises thanks to greater investor accessibility. 

 

11 Recently Approved Bitcoin ETFs

  • ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (NYSE:ARKB)
  • Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (NYSE:BITB)
  • Blackrock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ:IBIT)
  • Franklin Bitcoin ETF (NYSE:EZBC)
  • Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust (NYSE:FBTC)
  • Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (NYSE:GBTC)
  • Hashdex Bitcoin ETF (NYSEARCA:DEFI)
  • Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (NYSE:BTCO)
  • VanEck Bitcoin Trust (NYSE:HODL)
  • Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund (NASDAQ:BRRR)
  • WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund (NYSE:BTCW)

 

Following the approval, investors are able to easily invest in Bitcoin ETFs on exchanges like a normal stock; without having to worry about getting a digital wallet or navigating through different crypto exchanges.

 

Another key factor driving Bitcoin prices would be the “Halving”- an event which occurs every 210,000 Bitcoin “blocks” or every 4 years, where the annual issuance rate of bitcoin would be reduced by 50%. This results in greater scarcity of the digital coin, potentially translating into price appreciation. Historically, the price impact of the “Halving” tends to only be reflected about a year after the event occurs. The next “Halving” event is scheduled for April 2024.

 

Nevertheless, prices of Bitcoin have been historically volatile and unpredictable, as seen by the digital coin experiencing 3 consecutive losing sessions following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs on 11 January.

 

We think this slide could be reflecting a “buy the rumour, sell the news” reaction, given that the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs was a long time coming and likely already priced-in by investors.

 

In the short-term, we think Bitcoin prices could be vulnerable to profit taking, but downside risk should remain limited as overall market sentiment appears to be risk-on thanks to soft landing optimism and expectations of early rate cuts by the Fed.

 

Historically, Bitcoin has a high positive correlation to the Nasdaq 100, but this relationship has also been periodically negative.

Bitcoin has a high positive correlation to the Nasdaq 100
Bitcoin has a high positive correlation to the Nasdaq 100

As seen in the chart above, their correlation peaked in mid-2022 before declining in early-2023 due to a banking crisis (sparked by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank), which fuelled the belief that Bitcoin can function as a safe haven investment.

 

Recently, this correlation appears to be trending higher as risk sentiment turns more upbeat- driving greater inflows towards tech stocks and digital assets like cryptocurrencies which offers significant runway for growth.


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An Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is a marketable security that is formed to track nearly anything, ranging from a specific index, sector, commodity, or increasingly, theme. They are most commonly used to track a basket of stocks, and can typically be accessed through the same channels as regular stocks. ETFs are typically separated into passively-managed ETFs that simply mirror the security they are tracking (e.g. the STI), and actively managed ones that attempt to deliver higher returns or specific investment objectives, often with a pre-specified theme in mind (e.g. ARK Invest’s Innovation ETF).

Why should I trade in ETF CFDs?

  • ETFs have been growing in popularity over the years. 2020 was the best year for ETFs yet, with global equity ETFs seeing more than $1T in inflows within a 12-month period. Using CFDs to gain exposure to ETFs allows for greater capital efficiency because only a portion of the contract value is required as margin to establish a position.
  • ETFs are particularly popular with investors seeking a relatively hassle-free investing experience, while desiring exposure to a range of specific and relatively understandable securities. Trading ETF CFDs brings greater convenience by eliminating the need for traders to hold multiple currencies in order to access global ETFs.
  • An investor wanting exposure to the post-pandemic economic recovery could open a position in the well-known SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the performance of the S&P 500. Another investor that may be convinced of the future importance of Environmental, Social and Governance concerns (ESG) may find the increasing selection of ESG-themed ETFs that track a basket of high ESG-rating companies to be a good investment, rather than cherry-picking individual equities by hand. ETF CFDs can act as a powerful tool for traders can profit from both directions of the market by taking on long or short positions.

A look at two ETF CFDs we offer:

1) Has the ARKK been sunk?

ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) ARKK is an actively managed ETF by ARK Invest that invests in a range of companies based on their innovative and industry-disrupting potential. ARKK’s largest holdings are in companies such as Tesla, Square, and Zoom. ARKK is down around -33% from peaking on 12th Feb and is currently in the red for the year to date as the market experiences a risk-off outflow of funds. Superstar fund manager Cathie Wood has however been consistently doubling down on her bets, buying even more shares in growth stocks that are going through their own tumultuous periods such as DraftKings, Peloton, Teladoc, and Tesla. In her view, ARKK is playing the long game, and remains steadfastly convinced in the long-term prospects of these growth stocks beyond this current bout of volatility. Similarly on outflows, investors are still betting big on ARKK as ARK Invest has only lost about $1.2B in assets this year across all its six funds, compared to seeing an inflow of $15.1B during the same period. Recently, investors have been nervously eyeing ARKK’s basket of tech stocks as their future earnings potential remain vulnerable to erosion through high inflation – the dominant concern of the market in recent weeks. As commodities – the major contributor to the recent heightened inflation fears – drops sharply from record highs, are investor concerns over hyperinflation overblown?

2) Searching for exposure to Asian equities?

iShares MSCI Asia ex Japan ETF (AAXJ) The AAXJ is currently trading -10.6% adrift of all-time highs seen in February, giving up gains in tandem with an Asia-wide equity sell-off at the time. Given that slightly over 40% of the ETF’s holdings are based in China, the ongoing tumult seen in Chinese equities currently have carried over nearly perfectly in the AAXJ, as Chinese investors take a breather after the stellar gains made over the past year. Looking ahead, Asia – and particularly China, is steaming ahead with its economic recovery. China is widely expected to be one of the best-performing major economies this year, providing a major boost to the outlook for corporate earnings. As the rest of Asia and the world gradually opens up their own economies, AAXJ is likely to again benefit from strong Asian outperformance amidst a strengthening trade outlook.

CFD is available for trading on Phillip MetaTrader 5 (MT5).

Features of trading CFD:

  • Trade in both the bull and the bear markets
    The ability to enter a long and/or short position allow traders to take advantage of both rising and falling markets.
  • Smaller barrier to entry
    Flexible and smaller contract sizes. This means that traders will be able to enter into a contract with a modest amount of capital.
  • No expiration date or risk of delivery
    Unlike futures which commonly have a fixed expiration date, CFD allows traders to perpetually hold the position(s). CFD is cash settled, no need to worry about the delivery of the underlying asset.

 

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