Strategic Futures Trading During US Election Week

04 11 月 2024

Phillip Nova高级投资分析师林知霖先生

 

In what seems like a coin-toss election, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are blitzing through swing states to make their final pitches to voters in the campaign’s final days, with polls signalling no clear winner. Latest polls have them tied at around 49% each. Another poll showed Harris with a 47%-44% lead in Iowa.

 

Source: Bloomberg, 4 November

 

It should be noted that results may not be finalised on election night, as some states including Washington DC do not begin counting ballots until polls close and some states will tally votes more quickly than others. In 2020, the results were announced four days after the election; while in 2016, Hillary Clinton conceded to Donald Trump just the morning after the election. A delayed election result could raise volatility across asset classes.

 

Additionally, right off the heels of election day will be the November FOMC meeting on 8 Nov at 03:00 SGT, where the Fed is expected to cut rates by 25bps.

 

Insights:

  • Volatility tends to rise prior to Elections

The most predictable outcome would be more volatility. Across the past 7 elections, the VIX typically sees an increase of about 26.65% in October, the month before the elections, before declining on average about -12.53% in November as volatility subsides post-election, as seen in the seasonality chart below.

 

Source: Bloomberg, VIX seasonality chart, 26 September

 

  • Election Impact on the S&P 500

Reviewing S&P 500 performance going back to 1992 as seen below, we see that the S&P 500 averages a 2.45% decline a month before the election, while eking out a 0.35% and 0.83% gain in November and December respectively, post-election.

 

Source: Bloomberg, S&P 500 Seasonality Chart Election Years, 26 September

 

Source: Bloomberg, S&P 500 Seasonality Chart Election Years, 30 September

 

Overall, the S&P 500 saw an average gain of 1.15% in election years since 1992. Election years have generally been good for the US stock market, with the S&P 500 having risen in almost every election year since 1992, the exceptions being 2000 and 2008, which were marred by economic recessions.

 

Thus, unless the economic backdrop sees an abrupt change, we remain constructive on US equities post-election.

 

Trump Victory:

  • Trump proposed to lower the corporate tax rate to 15% from 21%.
  • 10%-20% across the board tariff, and 60% on Chinese-made goods. Could have inflationary impact.
  • Beneficiaries: Financials under looser regulations (Bank of America, Goldman Sachs), Oil and energy companies (Baker Hughes, Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips), Defence (Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman), Prison (Geo Group) and Gunmakers (Smith & Wesson), Crypto stocks (Coinbase, Marathon Digital, Riot Platforms). Trump Media & technology Group
  • Companies with high exposure to China could face pressure if trade tensions escalate. Including Qualcomm, Marvell, Materials companies like Celanese Corp, and Industrials like Otis Worldwide Corp.

 

Harris Victory:

  • Harris proposed for an increase in corporate tax rate to 28%, as well as higher rates for higher income earners.
  • Campaign messaging suggests that Harris also will take a tough stance against China, although to a lesser extent than Trump
  • Beneficiaries: Renewable energy producers like First Solar, Sunrun), EV makers (Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid), and EV-charging network operators (ChargePoint Holdings, Beam Global, Blink Charging Co). Homebuilders (DR Horton, Lennar, KB Home), Cannabis (Tilray Brands, Canopy Growth)

 

FTSE China A50 Futures:

Source: Bloomberg, 4 November

 

The FTSE China A50 Futures appears to be in consolidation, amid stimulus uncertainty and a shaky economy.

 

When compared with the Mini H-shares Index Futures, we observe a high correlation of around 0.83 over the past 2 years. However, the A50 is typically seen as less sensitive to geopolitical tensions as A-shares generate a majority of their revenue domestically.

 

Source: Bloomberg, 4 November

 

Looking at the ratio between the FTSE China A50 Futures and the Mini H-shares Index Futures, we are able to discern a mean-reverting pattern based on a Bollinger band, as seen above.

 

Thus, we think that election season volatility presents an opportunity for the ratio to be pushed into overbought or oversold territory temporarily before reverting to the mean. The ratio is currently -1.7 standard deviations below the mean.

 

Source: Bloomberg, 4 November

 

Futures Playbook:

In our view, the market can perform well through year-end whether Harris or former President Trump wins the election. Fundamentals are solid and historical trends are favourable for the stock market post-election.

 

However, a Trump win could also result in near-term market volatility due to the inflationary impact of additional tariffs, as well as increased debt and deficit spending. On the other hand, a Harris victory could weigh on markets due to higher taxes and additional regulations

 

As mentioned earlier, we think that heightened volatility is likely in the near-term. Such volatility could result in short-term swings that present attractive opportunities for mean-reversion trades.

 

  • Long CME E-mini S&P 500 Futures

We favour going long the CME E-mini S&P 500 Futures based on the historical trend of US equities gaining post-election.

 

  • Long FTSE China A50 Futures (CN), Short Mini H-shares Index Futures (MCH)

We favour going long the FTSE China A50 Futures and shorting the Mini H-shares Index Futures. We believe the A50 is less reactionary to US election volatility as onshore A-shares are less impacted by trade tensions with the US. Thus, in the event of heightened volatility post-election, we see the Mini H-shares Index Futures seeing greater price action than the A50, which will impact the spread ratio in the near-term.

 

If the ratio trades 2 standard deviations below the mean, we favour going long on CN and shorting MCH, vice versa.

 

利用 Phillip Nova 2.0 为选举带来的机遇做好准备

We’ve done the heavy lifting for you. With our new “US Election” category, Phillip Nova 2.0 provides a carefully curated list of products across different asset classes likely to be impacted by the election. Whether you’re interested in energy, financials, tech, or renewable sectors, this feature enables you to identify trading opportunities that align with potential political outcomes. To access the new curated category, head to your Watchlist>+Add>click on the “US Election” category.

 

Where the new US Election category is located.

 

新策划类别中提供的产品。

 

Phillip Nova 2.0 为您提供了各种工具,让您能够领先于选举驱动的市场变化,轻松做出明智的交易决策。

 

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在 Phillip Nova 交易股票、ETF、外汇和期货

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交易所交易基金 (ETF) 是一种有价证券,可用于跟踪几乎所有内容,包括特定指数、行业、商品或越来越多的主题。它们最常用于跟踪一篮子股票,通常可以通过与常规股票相同的渠道访问。 ETF 通常分为被动管理的 ETF,它们仅反映它们所跟踪的证券(例如 STI),以及试图提供更高回报或特定投资目标的主动管理的 ETF,通常考虑到预先指定的主题(例如 ARK Invest 的创新 ETF)。

我为什么要交易 ETF 差价合约?

  • 多年来,ETF 越来越受欢迎。 2020 年是 ETF 最好的一年,全球股票 ETF 在 12 个月内的流入量超过 $1T。使用差价合约获得 ETF 的敞口可以提高资本效率,因为只需合约价值的一部分作为保证金即可建立头寸。
  • ETF 尤其受到寻求相对轻松的投资体验,同时希望接触一系列特定且相对易懂的证券的投资者的欢迎。交易 ETF 差价合约通过消除交易者持有多种货币以访问全球 ETF 的需要,带来了更大的便利。
  • 希望参与大流行后经济复苏的投资者可以在著名的 SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) 中建仓,该指数跟踪标准普尔 500 指数的表现。另一位可能相信环境未来重要性的投资者,社会和治理问题 (ESG) 可能会发现,越来越多的 ESG 主题 ETF 选择跟踪一篮子 ESG 评级高的公司是一项不错的投资,而不是手动挑选单个股票。 ETF 差价合约可以作为一种强大的工具,交易者可以通过持有多头或空头头寸从市场的两个方向获利。

看看我们提供的两种 ETF 差价合约:

1) ARKK 被击沉了吗?

方舟创新ETF(ARKK) ARKK 是 ARK Invest 积极管理的 ETF,根据其创新和行业颠覆潜力投资于一系列公司。 ARKK 最大的持股是特斯拉、Square 和 Zoom 等公司。 ARKK 从 12 日的峰值下跌约 -33% 2 月,由于市场经历了资金的避险外流,今年迄今处于亏损状态。然而,超级明星基金经理凯西伍德一直在加倍押注,购买更多正在经历动荡时期的成长型股票,如 DraftKings、Peloton、Teladoc 和特斯拉。在她看来,ARKK 正在玩长期游戏,并且仍然坚信这些成长型股票在当前波动之后的长期前景。同样在流出方面,投资者仍然对 ARKK 押注很大,因为 ARK Invest 今年在其所有六只基金中仅损失了约 $1.2B 的资产,而同期则流入 $15.1B。最近,投资者一直紧张地关注 ARKK 的一篮子科技股,因为它们未来的盈利潜力仍然容易受到高通胀的侵蚀——这是最近几周市场的主要担忧。随着大宗商品——近期通胀担忧加剧的主要因素——从历史高位急剧下跌,投资者对恶性通货膨胀的担忧是否被夸大了?

2) 寻找亚洲股票的敞口?

iShares MSCI Asia ex Japan ETF (AAXJ) AAXJ 目前的交易价格为 -10.6%,偏离 2 月份创下的历史高点,在当时亚洲范围内的股票抛售中放弃了收益。鉴于该 ETF 持有的略高于 40% 的资产位于中国,中国股市的持续动荡目前在 AAXJ 中几乎完美延续,因为中国投资者在过去一年取得了惊人的收益后喘了口气。展望未来,亚洲——尤其是中国,正在加速其经济复苏。外界普遍预计,中国将成为今年表现最好的主要经济体之一,大大提振企业盈利前景。随着亚洲其他地区和世界逐渐开放自己的经济,在贸易前景增强的情况下,AAXJ 可能会再次受益于亚洲的强劲表现。

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交易差价合约的特点:

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    与通常具有固定到期日的期货不同,差价合约允许交易者永久持有头寸。差价合约以现金结算,无需担心标的资产的交割。

 

使用飞利浦 MT5 的好处:

在提供低点差的动态平台上以零佣金进行交易。与 Autochartist 和 交易中心指标,并在移动、网络和桌面应用程序上可用,您将永远不会错过使用 Phillip MT5 的交易机会。

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