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作者：Priyanka Sachdeva，Phillip Nova 高级市场分析师
Gold Market Snapshot
- Gold prices corrected sharply after a quiet weekend in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
- The softening of the US Dollar is likely to limit the losses in Gold.
- Market anticipates another 25 basis point cut in December and await cues from upcoming US PCE prices
Gold prices witnessed an astonishing pullback from recent lows of 2500’s before correcting sharply on Monday morning amid fading Geopolitical risk. Despite the softening of the US Dollar, which bodes well for dollar-denominated Gold prices, the loss of war premium seems to weigh on Gold prices.
November has been quite a roller coaster ride for gold, experiencing a correction of over 9% from recent highs in the 2800s, before recovering most of those losses last week. The geopolitical uncertainty that previously supported gold prices seems to have fizzled out, while a positive sentiment toward risk-on assets has led to a channeling of funds away from gold investments. Stock markets and risky assets have been overly optimistic this year and some offload in Gold investments looks justified, however, this doesn’t derail Gold’s long-term bullish outlook. Gold is well supported by catalysts like FED easing and Central banks buying, which will likely keep prices well supported. “War premium in prices” owing to Geopolitical stress may continue to come and go as per newspapers’ “Headlines”.
As of 12:05 pm Singapore Standard Time, Gold spot trades at $2676 per ounce down by -1.35% while Gold Comex February Futures trade at $2701.20 per ounce down by -1.32%. The current weakness in Gold can be attributed to a cocktail of catalysts like easing uncertainty, softening fears of an escalation in Russia-Ukraine as well as technical consolidation between the 2500’s to 2800s.
Gold’s bullish momentum and future projections broadly discount the easing by the Federal Reserve going forward in 2025. Trump’s election not only eliminated uncertainties around the US Election but also boosted concerns over Trump’s policies, largely believed to be inflationary. Any prospects for lesser FED cuts as progress on inflation derails is currently weighing heavily on Gold prices. Markets broadly await upcoming US PCE prices this week to gauge the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
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