Gold hovers just below its high, even as USD strengthens

作者：Priyanka Sachdeva，Phillip Nova 高级市场分析师

Gold Snapshot
1. Gold enjoys a positive outlook, backed by Powell’s confidence in Inflation and potential Fed rate cuts.
2. Jump in USD, propelled by rising yields for 10-year treasuries which are now at 3.841%, challenging non-yielding assets Gold.
3. Key US data on gauge this week: GDP estimates, Initial Jobless Claims, and core PCE inflation.

Gold futures have been proving increasingly resilient to trimmed expectations of rate cuts this year amid the backdrop of the mounting geopolitical crisis in the Middle East. Despite the mild rebound in the US Dollar which has been easing after Powell hinted a September cut, Gold managed to hold most of its gains in uncharted zones.

Technically, if we look at the Gold multi-year chart and place regression from lows in the 2000s to a high of $ 1924 per ounce back in 2011, Gold witnessed a correction exactly to the 50% level between 2011 to 2016. If we extend the same regression again as Gold currently trades in the uncharted zone, the $1700 rally points to a potential target of $2757 per ounce.

The good news is that while the short-term outlook for gold may be uncertain, the medium-term and long-term prospects are both excellent. Gold is currently well-positioned in a bullish long-term trend, but there are several challenges and a lack of clear triggers, leading to a period of consolidation. In the short term, gold bulls will likely try to push the price past $2600 per ounce. Gold continues to be seen as a safe-haven asset, particularly amidst global uncertainties. Ongoing geopolitical tensions have notably increased the demand for gold. Central banks have also been significant buyers, purchasing a net of 228 tonnes of gold in Q1 2024 alone, a 34% increase compared to the same period in 2023. This surge has driven prices to record highs.

The recent weakness and uncertainty in US Job markets are also swinging investment flows towards Gold, but the jump in the Dollar is keeping a lid on the upward breakout. At this point, investors await GDP numbers to gauge economic growth and clarity on inflation data, leading to a more dovish FED creating an upside potential for Gold.

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