欧元兑美元接近上升三角形顶点

EURUSD started the first trading day of the year in the red but managed to pare most of its weekly losses by climbing 68 pips last Friday. On Monday, 10 January, the pair retreated and almost reversed Friday’s gains before rebounding to close at 1.13268.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) which tracks the greenback’s strength against a basket of rival currencies, is kept below the psychological resistance at 96 after breaching below the level on Friday. In this article, we will discuss on a few driving factors for the EURUSD pair.

Mixed employment data in the US

One of the key economic data release that stirred volatility in the pair was the US Nonfarm Payrolls data for December. The employment data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the NFP rose by only 199,000 in December, underperforming market consensus of 400,000 job increases. Reported on the first Friday following the reported month, the Nonfarm Payrolls figures present number of new jobs created during the reported month and it is one of the most important economic indicator assessed by forex traders. A better than expected NFP data tends to be bullish for the US dollar, vice versa.

Other employment data however, paint a more optimistic picture. The Average Hourly Earnings grew 4.7% year on year, higher than expectation of 4.2%, while the Unemployment Rate dropped to 3.9%, lowest level since February 2020. The healthy figure suggests a sustained recovery in the job market amid rapid recovering economy and strong labor demand.

Record inflation in the EU

Among the major economies, the European Union has lagged behind in terms of tightening monetary policy as the European Central Bankers remained their dovish tone to support the economic recovery of the Eurozone. However, a record high for EU inflation announced last Friday has lead markets to doubt the narrative that the inflation is temporary and that it would soon stabilize. The Consumer Price Index for the EU rose 5% in December, beating analyst’s expectation of 4.7%.

The main driver for the high inflation was the increased energy prices which rose 26% year on year. Price increase in food, services and imported goods were also above ECB’s overall 2% inflation target.

The ECB hold the view that inflation will be back under 2% by end of 2022 but many influential policymakers are warning that risks are skewed towards higher figures and that above-target readings could persist into next year.

技术分析

After creating a yearly low on 24 November, EURUSD rebounded and has since consolidated in an ascending triangle formation. The ascending triangle could be identified by the higher lowers throughout December extending into this year while being capped by resistance around 1.1366. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in tandem with the prices and has breached above the neutrality zone at 50. If the RSI manages to stay above 50, it would increase the likelihood of an upside breakout from the pattern.

In the event of a daily close above R1 (1.13664), traders could anticipate EURUSD to test R2 (1.1459) which is the 23.6% Fibonacci level. Alternately, if price loses S1 support, price may head to retest 2021 low at S2 (1.1183).

Tuesday, January 11

EUR – German Buba President Weidmann speech

USD – Fed’s Chair Powell Testifies

Wednesday, January 12

EUR – Industrial Production s.a (MoM)(Nov)

USD – Consumer Price Index (MoM)(YoY)(Dec), Consumer Price Index Core s.a(Dec), Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)(YoY)(Dec)

Thursday, January 13

USD – Monthly Budget Statement (Dec), Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 7), Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(Dec), Fed’s Brainard speech

EUR – Economic Bulletin

Friday, January 14

USD – Retail Sales (MoM)(Dec), Retail Sales Control Group (Dec), Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)(Dec), Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Jan)