货币政策分歧推动美元兑日元升至 2015 年高位

The Japanese yen has been the worst performing major currency against the US dollar in the past weeks, losing around 9% since start of March, when the USDJPY pair hit broke a six-year high at the start of this week. The pair’s weakness could be attributed to the strength of the US dollar, as well as weakness in the Japanese yen, which is primarily driven by fundamental reasons. The US Dollar Index (DXY) which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of rival currencies, is attempting to break the highest point since May 2020, floating above 99.

日本鸽派银行

One of the major drivers of the currency pair’s movement would be the increasingly diverging monetary policy stances between the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve.

The Bank of Japan’s current guideline allows its 10-year yield to move flexibly around the 0% target and has set a ceiling at 0.25%. As investors have priced in the potential aggressive rate hikes by the Fed throughout the year, the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield has been inching up in tandem with a rise in the US long-term interest rates. In BoJ’s effort to defend its 0.25% yield cap, the central bank offered on Monday to buy an unlimited amount of government bonds for the first four days of this week. Following the dovish monetary policy stance that BoJ has long held, this repeated gesture which signals toward expanding money supply sent the yen lower. 

鹰派美联储

The easy monetary policy by the BoJ paints a stark contrast with the hawkish US Fed which has commenced its tightening cycle this month. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week that the central bank must move “expeditiously” to raise rates and possibly “more aggressively”. In the face of strong labour market and sky-high inflation in the US, markets are expecting a 50 basis points rate hike at the next two meetings, higher than the 25 basis points hike in March. This hawkish expectation will continue to bolster the greenback.

技术分析

On the monthly chart, the USDJPY has met its breakout target from a falling wedge formation around 123. The longer term 50 exponential moving average (EMA) has crossed above the shorter term 20 EMA, suggesting the potential continuation of the uptrend. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator displays a bullish momentum with the histogram in positive region and above the signal line. Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently in overbought region above 70, indicating a possible retracement to retest support.

Looking ahead, the trend for USDJPY remains bullish but we anticipate USDJPY to retrace and retest previous resistance-turned-support levels at S1 (121.62) and S2 (118.66) before further advance. In terms of upside potential, the next resistance lies at R1 (125.853) which is the 2015 high. If this level is breached, the next target will be the pairs 2002 high at 135.19.

Tuesday, March 29

USD – Fed’s Williams speech, Housing Price Index (MoM)(Jan), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY)(Jan)

Wednesday, March 30

JPY – Large Retailer Sales(Feb), Retail Trade (YoY)(Feb), Retail Trade s.a (MoM)(Feb)

USD – ADP Employment Change(Mar), Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)(Q4), Gross Domestic Product Annualized(Q4), Gross Domestic Product Price Index(Q4), Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)(Q4)

Thursday, March 31

JPY – Industrial Production (MoM)(YoY)(Feb)

USD – Core Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (MoM)(YoY)(Feb), Initial Jobless Claims(Mar 25), Personal Income (MoM)(Feb), Personal Spending(Feb), Fed’s Williams speech, Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index(Mar)

Friday, April 1

JPY – Tankan Large All Industry Capex(Q1), Tankan Large Manufacturing Index(Q1), Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook(Q1)

USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)(YoY)(Mar), Labor Force Participation Rate(Mar), Nonfarm Payrolls(Mar), Unemployment Rate(Mar), ISM Manufacturing PMI(Mar)