CN 
EN 
Pre-elections analysis courtesy of Eurex
With Germany heading to the polls on Sunday, 23 February 2025, all eyes are on how the DAX Futures might react. Will market volatility create new trading opportunities? 
Read on to learn more!
European and US benchmark index futures and their sensitivity to political news
- European and US benchmark index futures are highly correlated, moving in the same direction in regular times.
- We also see that US presidential election caused more volatility to DAX than internal news on parliamentary coalition break-up in Germany
- This can be explained by the structure of DAX companies that generate only 18% of the sales inside Germany
DAX as a global export powerhouse
- As stated in Deutsche Bank report1 published in 2023, DAX companies mostly generate sales outside Germany and show higher correlation to
global GDP (0.41) than to Germany’s GDP (0.33) - As Germany GDP stagnated (-0.2%) in Q4 2024, DAX continues to rally as index is more exposed to the political discussion around tariffs than to the national election cycle
- DAX is floating at 21,770 as of January 31, showing 8% Ytd growth (vs ~3% in S&P500). The DAX’s current valuation of around 16 times earnings presents an attractive alternative to the S&P 500’s multiple of 25
- This valuation gap provides potential opportunities for investors seeking exposure to global growth at more reasonable prices
- The lower technology weighting has proven beneficial during recent AI related market volatility
- These factors make the DAX an interesting proposition for those looking to diversify their index trading exposure and could serve as a catalyst for rotation from US equity dominance in global asset allocation observed last years
Volatility derivatives: VSTOXX® vs. VIX®
VSTOXX®/VIX® spread has historically been mean-reverting, but relationship can break down during times of Euro or US specific events.
Between 2016 and 2024, the spread has averaged 1.66 points (VSTOXX® over the VIX). Given that VSTOXX ® gauges volatility of EURO STOXX 50 and EURO STOXX 50 consists only 28% of companies based in Germany, clients might want to opt for DAX ® derivatives family as a hedge for political events in Germany.
Volatility surface for DAX options
Given that parliamentary elections are planned for Feb 23, we observe the typical volatility smile for DAX Options expiring on Feb 21 (red line) and on Feb 28 expiry (white line). Worth to note that 28 Feb at-the-money and in-the-money options have higher IV than options expiring before the elections.
Term structure for DAX options
On the graph to the left we have term structures screened one week before US presidential elections (red line) and 3 weeks before Germany parliamentary elections (white line). We can see a hump clustered around front month contracts (dailies and weeklies) for both curves, although back in November the IV was higher across all terms.
Open interest distribution for DAX options 21 Feb expiry
- 21 Feb expiry represents 12.84% of total open interest in DAX options. The most bullish position is 3,860 call options placed at 22,800 strike
- Put/call ratio is at 1.96
Open interest distribution for DAX options 21 Feb expiry
- 21 Feb expiry represents 12.84% of total open interest in DAX options. The most bullish position is 3,860 call options placed at 22,800 strike
- Put/call ratio is at 1.96
Take a view on the Micro DAX and the Micro EURO STOXX 50 Now!
以 1.50 欧元的价格交易 Micro-DAX® 和 Micro-EURO STOXX 50® 期货*。了解更多 此处.
在 Phillip Nova 交易股票、ETF、外汇和期货
Phillip Nova 的交易特点
- 访问 20 多个全球交易所
从 20 多个全球交易所的 200 多个全球期货中捕捉机会
- 全球股票的交易机会
新加坡、中国、香港、马来西亚和美国市场的 11,000 多只股票和 ETF。
- 超过 90 项技术指标
使用 Phillip Nova 平台上的 90 多种技术指标，查看实时图表并轻松进行交易
- 在 Phillip Nova 上交易多种资产
您可以在 Phillip Nova 的单一账本上交易股票、ETF、外汇和期货
