Post “Liberation Day” Tariffs and its Impact to US, SG, CN and JP Markets

Phillip Nova高级投资分析师林知霖先生

Post “Liberation Day” tariffs, Wall Street saw its worst day since 2020 as over $2.5 trillion was erased in terms of market cap. The Dollar Index (DXY) fell by -1.67%, with recession odds increased to 40% or higher by most analyst estimates. Treasury yields also dropped to around 4% on safe haven demand. In this article, we will take a closer look at the impact to the US, Singapore, China and Japan markets.

US Snapshot by Sector (Nasdaq 100 -5.41%↓ , S&P 500 Index -4.84%↓, Dow -3.98%↓)

• Apple (-9.25%) and tech hardware companies like Dell (-18.99%) plunged as their supply chain is heavily dependent on China. 
• Nike (-14.44%), Abercrombie (-15.75%), and Lululemon (-9.58%) both down as they rely heavily on goods and factories from Vietnam. Nike was heavily impacted as about 50% of their goods are sourced from Vietnam.
• Chipmakers plunged even though the White House said Taiwan tariffs would not apply to chips – Nvidia (-7.81%) ,AMD (-8.90%), Qualcomm (-9.51%) all dropped. But shares could also have been be dragged down by reports that Microsoft is pulling back on data centre projects globally.
• Automakers all declined: Stellantis (-9.41%) will pause some production in Canada and Mexico. GM (-4.34%) plans to boost US pickup truck output. Ford (-6.01%) rolled out steep discounts.
• Defensives like Tobacco giant Phillip Morris (+3.78%), Kroger (+5.16%), and french-fry supplier Lamb Weston (+10.01%) rose. Lamb Weston was the top performer in the S&P 500.

Singapore Snapshot by Sector (STI -0.30%↓)

• 这 iEdge S-REIT index was up +1.37% yesterday, led by Frasers Centerpoint Trust (+3.76%) and CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (+3.33%) despite a broader decline in the STI, as markets price in greater policy easing to offset tariff-driven economic weakness.
• S-REITs outperformed banks and the broader STI since Feb 21, when the White House released its “America First Investment Policy Memorandum.
• Lower US yields should translate to lower SORA. The S$NEER could see a slope reduction as soon as the upcoming MAS policy review on 14 April. This is supported by MAS Core Inflation which came in as low as 0.6% YoY.

China and Hong Kong Indices Snapshot by Sector (HSI -1.52%↓, CSI 300 -0.59%↓)

• Nike supplier Shenzhou International (-14.15%) was the biggest decliner in the Hang Seng, with the US making up 16% of Shenzhou’s revenue.
• Home appliance makers Haier (-8.03%) as 28% of sales comes from North America.
• Lenovo (-7.79%) also declined as the Americas make up 35% of revenue.
• Temu owner PDD Holdings (-4.54%) fell as US will remove the de minimis tariff exemptions for small packages from China on May 2
• Tsingtao Brewery (+1.54%), Kweichow Moutai (+1.28%), Haidilao (+1.37%)

Japan: Nikkei 225 -2.77%↓

• TOPIX banks index had its worst day since August, as tariffs could result in rates not rising as quickly as expected, Japanese banks were expecting higher local rates to boost their NIMs. Sumitomo Mitsui (-7.69%), MUFJ (-7.16%), Mizuho (-7.95%)
• Domestic-linked Japan stocks like Muji owner Ryohin KeiKaku (+4.04%), as well as railway operators like Central Japan Railway (+2.35%) outperformed. Ryohin Keikaku (Muji) generates 62% of revenue domestically, 33% from Asia ex Japan, and just 5% from Europe and Americas. 
• Disneyland operator Oriental Land (+2.46%) also opened higher today

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