By Danish Lim, Investment Analyst for Phillip Nova
As of the week of 8 January 2024, we saw the approval of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US, potentially opening the door for cryptocurrencies in investors’ portfolios. This development is expected to drive inflows as financial institutions buy up Bitcoin, and demand for the digital coin rises thanks to greater investor accessibility.
11 Recently Approved Bitcoin ETFs
- ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (NYSE:ARKB)
- Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (NYSE:BITB)
- Blackrock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ:IBIT)
- Franklin Bitcoin ETF (NYSE:EZBC)
- Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust (NYSE:FBTC)
- Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (NYSE:GBTC)
- Hashdex Bitcoin ETF (NYSEARCA:DEFI)
- Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (NYSE:BTCO)
- VanEck Bitcoin Trust (NYSE:HODL)
- Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund (NASDAQ:BRRR)
- WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund (NYSE:BTCW)
Following the approval, investors are able to easily invest in Bitcoin ETFs on exchanges like a normal stock; without having to worry about getting a digital wallet or navigating through different crypto exchanges.
Another key factor driving Bitcoin prices would be the “Halving”- an event which occurs every 210,000 Bitcoin “blocks” or every 4 years, where the annual issuance rate of bitcoin would be reduced by 50%. This results in greater scarcity of the digital coin, potentially translating into price appreciation. Historically, the price impact of the “Halving” tends to only be reflected about a year after the event occurs. The next “Halving” event is scheduled for April 2024.
Nevertheless, prices of Bitcoin have been historically volatile and unpredictable, as seen by the digital coin experiencing 3 consecutive losing sessions following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs on 11 January.
We think this slide could be reflecting a “buy the rumour, sell the news” reaction, given that the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs was a long time coming and likely already priced-in by investors.
In the short-term, we think Bitcoin prices could be vulnerable to profit taking, but downside risk should remain limited as overall market sentiment appears to be risk-on thanks to soft landing optimism and expectations of early rate cuts by the Fed.
Historically, Bitcoin has a high positive correlation to the Nasdaq 100, but this relationship has also been periodically negative.
As seen in the chart above, their correlation peaked in mid-2022 before declining in early-2023 due to a banking crisis (sparked by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank), which fuelled the belief that Bitcoin can function as a safe haven investment.
Recently, this correlation appears to be trending higher as risk sentiment turns more upbeat- driving greater inflows towards tech stocks and digital assets like cryptocurrencies which offers significant runway for growth.
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