A Crude Awakening

31 Aug 2022

By Eric Lee, Sales Director, Phillip Nova

Since it re-tested the high of $120 early June, Crude Oil had fallen to a recent low of $86 on 16 Aug. This had helped in easing inflation pressure as can be seen with the U.S. inflation rate falling from a high of 9.1% to 8.5%.

Source: tradingview.com

From the Crude Oil weekly chart, we can see that despite the falling oil price, Commercial Traders had been net-buying Crude Oil over the past 3 months. As the Commercial Traders are a group of physical oil hedgers, their actions often signify real supply and demand of the underlying product. Since 2017, current COT Commercial Index is the most bullish it has ever been.

Weekly Stochastic is also a good indicator to spot short-to-mid-term overbought or oversold conditions of Crude Oil prices. Currently, it is trading at an Oversold level and we can look out for it to cross back above 20 as indication of buying momentum coming back to the asset.

Source: tradingview.com

On the daily chart, Crude Oil is currently hovering around the 250-days Moving Average, which had often acted as a mid-to-long-term support for the price chart. KST, which had recently crossover upwards, is also an indicator we can use to spot potential signal on the start of a new uptrend. This is especially so if the price is coming up from near the 250-days Moving Average support.

Technical analysis wise, $85 is the near-term support and the next support at $75. Resistance is not so obvious at the moment due to the choppiness of its price actions over the past 6 months. Usually, a whole number like $100 can be taken as a psychological resistance.

Where to trade/invest in Crude Oil?

At Phillip Nova, we have the platforms and products available for you to trade Crude Oil:

  1. Nymex Crude Oil futures available on Phillip Nova trading platform
  2. Crude Oil CFD available on Phillip MT5 trading platform

Value-Added Service

Periodically, I will be sending out market analysis like this to my clients, as well as alerting them when the trading strategies I used indicated potential entry and exit signals. Click on the button at the bottom if you would like to arrange for a One-to-One Coaching session to learn more about trading futures & forex, and how you may benefit from the services I provide.


 

Eric Lee is a Sales Director with Phillip Nova. With expertise in Futures, Forex, Stocks, and Unit Trust, Eric makes an all-rounded advisor. Make informed trading decisions without spending time combing through endless information as Eric readily provides clients with trade alerts and insights via WhatsApp. Over his years of experience, Eric developed systematic strategies in trading and investing. Book a complimentary coaching session below to leverage on his expertise as he imparts his knowledge to enhance your trading journey.

An Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is a marketable security that is formed to track nearly anything, ranging from a specific index, sector, commodity, or increasingly, theme. They are most commonly used to track a basket of stocks, and can typically be accessed through the same channels as regular stocks. ETFs are typically separated into passively-managed ETFs that simply mirror the security they are tracking (e.g. the STI), and actively managed ones that attempt to deliver higher returns or specific investment objectives, often with a pre-specified theme in mind (e.g. ARK Invest’s Innovation ETF).

Why should I trade in ETF CFDs?

  • ETFs have been growing in popularity over the years. 2020 was the best year for ETFs yet, with global equity ETFs seeing more than $1T in inflows within a 12-month period. Using CFDs to gain exposure to ETFs allows for greater capital efficiency because only a portion of the contract value is required as margin to establish a position.
  • ETFs are particularly popular with investors seeking a relatively hassle-free investing experience, while desiring exposure to a range of specific and relatively understandable securities. Trading ETF CFDs brings greater convenience by eliminating the need for traders to hold multiple currencies in order to access global ETFs.
  • An investor wanting exposure to the post-pandemic economic recovery could open a position in the well-known SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the performance of the S&P 500. Another investor that may be convinced of the future importance of Environmental, Social and Governance concerns (ESG) may find the increasing selection of ESG-themed ETFs that track a basket of high ESG-rating companies to be a good investment, rather than cherry-picking individual equities by hand. ETF CFDs can act as a powerful tool for traders can profit from both directions of the market by taking on long or short positions.

A look at two ETF CFDs we offer:

1) Has the ARKK been sunk?

ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) ARKK is an actively managed ETF by ARK Invest that invests in a range of companies based on their innovative and industry-disrupting potential. ARKK’s largest holdings are in companies such as Tesla, Square, and Zoom. ARKK is down around -33% from peaking on 12th Feb and is currently in the red for the year to date as the market experiences a risk-off outflow of funds. Superstar fund manager Cathie Wood has however been consistently doubling down on her bets, buying even more shares in growth stocks that are going through their own tumultuous periods such as DraftKings, Peloton, Teladoc, and Tesla. In her view, ARKK is playing the long game, and remains steadfastly convinced in the long-term prospects of these growth stocks beyond this current bout of volatility. Similarly on outflows, investors are still betting big on ARKK as ARK Invest has only lost about $1.2B in assets this year across all its six funds, compared to seeing an inflow of $15.1B during the same period. Recently, investors have been nervously eyeing ARKK’s basket of tech stocks as their future earnings potential remain vulnerable to erosion through high inflation – the dominant concern of the market in recent weeks. As commodities – the major contributor to the recent heightened inflation fears – drops sharply from record highs, are investor concerns over hyperinflation overblown?

2) Searching for exposure to Asian equities?

iShares MSCI Asia ex Japan ETF (AAXJ) The AAXJ is currently trading -10.6% adrift of all-time highs seen in February, giving up gains in tandem with an Asia-wide equity sell-off at the time. Given that slightly over 40% of the ETF’s holdings are based in China, the ongoing tumult seen in Chinese equities currently have carried over nearly perfectly in the AAXJ, as Chinese investors take a breather after the stellar gains made over the past year. Looking ahead, Asia – and particularly China, is steaming ahead with its economic recovery. China is widely expected to be one of the best-performing major economies this year, providing a major boost to the outlook for corporate earnings. As the rest of Asia and the world gradually opens up their own economies, AAXJ is likely to again benefit from strong Asian outperformance amidst a strengthening trade outlook.

CFD is available for trading on Phillip MetaTrader 5 (MT5).

Features of trading CFD:

  • Trade in both the bull and the bear markets
    The ability to enter a long and/or short position allow traders to take advantage of both rising and falling markets.
  • Smaller barrier to entry
    Flexible and smaller contract sizes. This means that traders will be able to enter into a contract with a modest amount of capital.
  • No expiration date or risk of delivery
    Unlike futures which commonly have a fixed expiration date, CFD allows traders to perpetually hold the position(s). CFD is cash settled, no need to worry about the delivery of the underlying asset.

 

Benefits of using Phillip MT5:

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